Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications

The mixed model with polynomial drift of the form $X(t)=\theta \mathcal{P}(t)+\alpha W(t)+\sigma {B_{H}^{n}}(t)$ is studied, where ${B_{H}^{n}}$ is the nth-order fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in (n-1,n)$ and $n\ge 2$, independent of the Wiener process W. The polynomial function $\mathcal{P}$ is known, with degree $d(\mathcal{P})\in [1,n)$. Based on discrete observations and using the ergodic theorem estimates of H, ${\alpha ^{2}}$ and ${\sigma ^{2}}$ are given. Finally, a continuous time maximum likelihood estimator of θ is provided. Both strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established.

The paper focuses on the option price subdiffusive model under the unusual behavior of the market, when the price may not be changed for some time, which is a quite common situation in modern illiquid financial markets or during global crises. In the model, the risk-free bond motion and classical geometrical Brownian motion (GBM) are time-changed by an inverted inverse Gaussian($\mathit{IG}$) subordinator. We explore the correlation structure of the subdiffusive GBM stock returns process, discuss option pricing techniques based on the martingale option pricing method and the fractal Dupire equation, and demonstrate how it applies in the case of the $\mathit{IG}$ subordinator.

The structure of dependence between the forward and the backward recurrence times in a renewal process is considered. Monotonicity properties, as a function of time, for the tail of the bivariate distribution for the recurrence times are discussed, as well as their link with aging properties of the interarrival distribution F. A necessary and sufficient condition for the renewal function to be concave is also obtained. Finally, some properties of the conditional tail for one of the two recurrence times, given some information on the other, are studied. The results are illustrated by some numerical examples.

In this note the maximization of the expected terminal wealth for the setup of quadratic transaction costs is considered. First, a very simple probabilistic solution to the problem is provided. Although the problem was largely studied, as far as authors know up to date this simple and probabilistic form of the solution has not appeared in the literature. Next, the general result is applied for the numerical study of the case where the risky asset is given by a fractional Brownian motion and the information flow of the investor can be diversified.

This paper establishes the conditions for the existence of a stationary solution to the first-order autoregressive equation on a plane as well as properties of the stationary solution. The first-order autoregressive model on a plane is defined by the equation A stationary solution X to the equation exists if and only if $(1-a-b-c)(1-a+b+c)(1+a-b+c)(1+a+b-c)\gt 0$. The stationary solution X satisfies the causality condition with respect to the white noise ϵ if and only if $1-a-b-c\gt 0$, $1-a+b+c\gt 0$, $1+a-b+c\gt 0$ and $1+a+b-c\gt 0$. A sufficient condition for X to be purely nondeterministic is provided.

Despite the relevance of the binomial distribution for probability theory and applied statistical inference, its higher-order moments are poorly understood. The existing formulas are either not general enough, or not structured and simplified enough for intended applications.

A stochastic heat equation on $[0,T]\times B$, where B is a bounded domain, is considered. The equation is driven by a general stochastic measure, for which only σ-additivity in probability is assumed. The existence, uniqueness and Hölder regularity of the solution are proved.

The test for the location of the tangency portfolio on the set of feasible portfolios is proposed when both the population and the sample covariance matrices of asset returns are singular. The particular case of investigation is when the number of observations, n, is smaller than the number of assets, k, in the portfolio, and the asset returns are i.i.d. normally distributed with singular covariance matrix Σ such that $rank(\boldsymbol{\Sigma })=r\lt n\lt k+1$. The exact distribution of the test statistic is derived under both the null and alternative hypotheses. Furthermore, the high-dimensional asymptotic distribution of that test statistic is established when both the rank of the population covariance matrix and the sample size increase to infinity so that $r/n\to c\in (0,1)$. Theoretical findings are completed by comparing the high-dimensional asymptotic test with an exact finite sample test in the numerical study. A good performance of the obtained results is documented. To get a better understanding of the developed theory, an empirical study with data on the returns on the stocks included in the S&P 500 index is provided.

A Markov process defined by some pseudo-differential operator of an order $1\lt \alpha \lt 2$ as the process generator is considered. Using a pseudo-gradient operator, that is, the operator defined by the symbol $i\lambda |\lambda {|^{\beta -1}}$ with some $0\lt \beta \lt 1$, the perturbation of the Markov process under consideration by the pseudo-gradient with a multiplier, which is integrable at some large enough power, is constructed. Such perturbation defines a family of evolution operators, properties of which are investigated. A corresponding Cauchy problem is considered.