Distribution of shifted discrete random walk generated by distinct random variables and applications in ruin theory
Volume 11, Issue 3 (2024), pp. 323–357
Pub. online: 19 March 2024
Type: Research Article
Open Access
Open Access
Received
3 November 2023
3 November 2023
Revised
13 February 2024
13 February 2024
Accepted
22 February 2024
22 February 2024
Published
19 March 2024
19 March 2024
Abstract
In this paper, the distribution function
\[ \varphi (u)=\mathbb{P}\Bigg(\underset{n\geqslant 1}{\sup }{\sum \limits_{i=1}^{n}}({X_{i}}-\kappa )\lt u\Bigg),\]
and the generating function of $\varphi (u+1)$ are set up. We assume that $u\in \mathbb{N}\cup \{0\}$, $\kappa \in \mathbb{N}$, the random walk $\{{\textstyle\sum _{i=1}^{n}}{X_{i}},\hspace{0.1667em}n\in \mathbb{N}\}$ involves $N\in \mathbb{N}$ periodically occurring distributions, and the integer-valued and nonnegative random variables ${X_{1}},{X_{2}},\dots $ are independent. This research generalizes two recent works where $\{\kappa =1,N\in \mathbb{N}\}$ and $\{\kappa \in \mathbb{N},N=1\}$ were considered respectively. The provided sequence of sums $\{{\textstyle\sum _{i=1}^{n}}({X_{i}}-\kappa ),\hspace{0.1667em}n\in \mathbb{N}\}$ generates the so-called multi-seasonal discrete-time risk model with arbitrary natural premium and its known distribution enables to compute the ultimate time ruin probability $1-\varphi (u)$ or survival probability $\varphi (u)$. The obtained theoretical statements are verified in several computational examples where the values of the survival probability $\varphi (u)$ and its generating function are provided when $\{\kappa =2,\hspace{0.1667em}N=2\}$, $\{\kappa =3,\hspace{0.1667em}N=2\}$, $\{\kappa =5,\hspace{0.1667em}N=10\}$ and ${X_{i}}$ adopts the Poisson and some other distributions. The conjecture on the nonsingularity of certain matrices is posed.References
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