Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications

In this paper, the distribution function and the generating function of $\varphi (u+1)$ are set up. We assume that $u\in \mathbb{N}\cup \{0\}$, $\kappa \in \mathbb{N}$, the random walk $\{{\textstyle\sum _{i=1}^{n}}{X_{i}},\hspace{0.1667em}n\in \mathbb{N}\}$ involves $N\in \mathbb{N}$ periodically occurring distributions, and the integer-valued and nonnegative random variables ${X_{1}},{X_{2}},\dots $ are independent. This research generalizes two recent works where $\{\kappa =1,N\in \mathbb{N}\}$ and $\{\kappa \in \mathbb{N},N=1\}$ were considered respectively. The provided sequence of sums $\{{\textstyle\sum _{i=1}^{n}}({X_{i}}-\kappa ),\hspace{0.1667em}n\in \mathbb{N}\}$ generates the so-called multi-seasonal discrete-time risk model with arbitrary natural premium and its known distribution enables to compute the ultimate time ruin probability $1-\varphi (u)$ or survival probability $\varphi (u)$. The obtained theoretical statements are verified in several computational examples where the values of the survival probability $\varphi (u)$ and its generating function are provided when $\{\kappa =2,\hspace{0.1667em}N=2\}$, $\{\kappa =3,\hspace{0.1667em}N=2\}$, $\{\kappa =5,\hspace{0.1667em}N=10\}$ and ${X_{i}}$ adopts the Poisson and some other distributions. The conjecture on the nonsingularity of certain matrices is posed.

We introduce a branching process in a sparse random environment as an intermediate model between a Galton–Watson process and a branching process in a random environment. In the critical case we investigate the survival probability and prove Yaglom-type limit theorems, that is, limit theorems for the size of population conditioned on the survival event.

We deal with a generalization of the risk model with stochastic premiums where dividends are paid according to a constant dividend strategy and consider heuristic approximations for the ruin probability. To be more precise, we construct five- and three-moment analogues to the De Vylder approximation. To this end, we obtain an explicit formula for the ruin probability in the case of exponentially distributed premium and claim sizes. Finally, we analyze the accuracy of the approximations for some typical distributions of premium and claim sizes using statistical estimates obtained by the Monte Carlo methods.

Let $\{{\xi _{1}},{\xi _{2}},\dots \}$ be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. In this paper, the sufficient conditions are found under which the tail probability $\mathbb{P}(\,{\sup _{n\geqslant 0}}\,{\sum _{i=1}^{n}}{\xi _{i}}>x)$ can be bounded above by ${\varrho _{1}}\exp \{-{\varrho _{2}}x\}$ with some positive constants ${\varrho _{1}}$ and ${\varrho _{2}}$. A way to calculate these two constants is presented. The application of the derived bound is discussed and a Lundberg-type inequality is obtained for the ultimate ruin probability in the inhomogeneous renewal risk model satisfying the net profit condition on average.

We obtain a Lundberg-type inequality in the case of an inhomogeneous renewal risk model. We consider the model with independent, but not necessarily identically distributed, claim sizes and the interoccurrence times. In order to prove the main theorem, we first formulate and prove an auxiliary lemma on large values of a sum of random variables asymptotically drifted in the negative direction.