Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications

In this paper we investigate a problem of large deviations for continuous Volterra processes under the influence of model disturbances. More precisely, we study the behavior, in the near future after T, of a Volterra process driven by a Brownian motion in a case where the Brownian motion is not directly observable, but only a noisy version is observed or some linear functionals of the noisy version are observed. Some examples are discussed in both cases.

A moderate deviations principle for the law of a stochastic Burgers equation is proved via the weak convergence approach. In addition, some useful estimates toward a central limit theorem are established.

The problem of (pathwise) large deviations for conditionally continuous Gaussian processes is investigated. The theory of large deviations for Gaussian processes is extended to the wider class of random processes – the conditionally Gaussian processes. The estimates of level crossing probability for such processes are given as an application.

Let $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ be a sequence of independent random variables, and η be a counting random variable independent of this sequence. In addition, let $S_{0}:=0$ and $S_{n}:=\xi _{1}+\xi _{2}+\cdots +\xi _{n}$ for $n\geqslant 1$. We consider conditions for random variables $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ and η under which the distribution functions of the random maximum $\xi _{(\eta )}:=\max \{0,\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots ,\xi _{\eta }\}$ and of the random maximum of sums $S_{(\eta )}:=\max \{S_{0},S_{1},S_{2},\dots ,S_{\eta }\}$ belong to the class of consistently varying distributions. In our consideration the random variables $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ are not necessarily identically distributed.

The Galton–Watson process is the simplest example of a branching process. The relationship between the offspring distribution, and, when the extinction occurs almost surely, the distribution of the total progeny is well known. In this paper, we illustrate the relationship between these two distributions when we consider the large deviation rate function (provided by Cramér’s theorem) for empirical means of i.i.d. random variables. We also consider the case with a random initial population. In the final part, we present large deviation results for sequences of estimators of the offspring mean based on i.i.d. replications of total progeny.

Let $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ be a sequence of independent random variables, and η be a counting random variable independent of this sequence. We consider conditions for $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ and η under which the distribution function of the random sum $S_{\eta }=\xi _{1}+\xi _{2}+\cdots +\xi _{\eta }$ belongs to the class of consistently varying distributions. In our consideration, the random variables $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ are not necessarily identically distributed.

We establish the large deviation principle for solutions of one-dimensional SDEs with discontinuous coefficients. The main statement is formulated in a form similar to the classical Wentzel–Freidlin theorem, but under the considerably weaker assumption that the coefficients have no discontinuities of the second kind.

We prove a large deviation type estimate for the asymptotic behavior of a weighted local time of $\varepsilon W$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$.

Let $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ be a sequence of independent random variables (not necessarily identically distributed), and η be a counting random variable independent of this sequence. We obtain sufficient conditions on $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ and η under which the distribution function of the random sum $S_{\eta }=\xi _{1}+\xi _{2}+\cdots +\xi _{\eta }$ belongs to the class of $\mathcal{O}$-exponential distributions.

We establish the Gärtner–Ellis condition for the square of an asymptotically stationary Gaussian process. The same limit holds for the conditional distribution given any fixed initial point, which entails weak multiplicative ergodicity. The limit is shown to be the Laplace transform of a convolution of gamma distributions with Poisson compound of exponentials. A proof based on the Wiener–Hopf factorization induces a probabilistic interpretation of the limit in terms of a regression problem.