Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications

The mixed model with polynomial drift of the form $X(t)=\theta \mathcal{P}(t)+\alpha W(t)+\sigma {B_{H}^{n}}(t)$ is studied, where ${B_{H}^{n}}$ is the nth-order fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in (n-1,n)$ and $n\ge 2$, independent of the Wiener process W. The polynomial function $\mathcal{P}$ is known, with degree $d(\mathcal{P})\in [1,n)$. Based on discrete observations and using the ergodic theorem estimates of H, ${\alpha ^{2}}$ and ${\sigma ^{2}}$ are given. Finally, a continuous time maximum likelihood estimator of θ is provided. Both strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established.

The paper presents an analytical proof demonstrating that the Sandwiched Volterra Volatility (SVV) model is able to reproduce the power-law behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, provided the correct choice of the Volterra kernel. To obtain this result, the second-order Malliavin differentiability of the volatility process is assessed and the conditions that lead to explosive behavior in the Malliavin derivative are investigated. As a supplementary result, a general Malliavin product rule is proved.

The term moderate deviations is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between a convergence in probability to zero (governed by a large deviation principle) and a weak convergence to a centered Normal distribution. The notion of noncentral moderate deviations is used when the weak convergence is towards a non-Gaussian distribution. In this paper, noncentral moderate deviation results are presented for two fractional Skellam processes known in the literature (see [20]). It is established that, for the fractional Skellam process of type 2 (for which one can refer to the recent results for compound fractional Poisson processes in [3]), the convergences to zero are usually faster because one can prove suitable inequalities between rate functions.

The object of investigation is the mixed fractional Brownian motion of the form ${X_{t}}=\kappa {B_{t}^{{H_{1}}}}+\sigma {B_{t}^{{H_{2}}}}$, driven by two independent fractional Brownian motions ${B_{1}^{H}}$ and ${B_{2}^{H}}$ with Hurst parameters ${H_{1}}\lt {H_{2}}$. Strongly consistent estimators of unknown model parameters ${({H_{1}},{H_{2}},{\kappa ^{2}},{\sigma ^{2}})^{\top }}$ are constructed based on the equidistant observations of a trajectory. Joint asymptotic normality of these estimators is proved for $0\lt {H_{1}}\lt {H_{2}}\lt \frac{3}{4}$.

The so-called multi-mixed fractional Brownian motions (mmfBm) and multi-mixed fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (mmfOU) processes are studied. These processes are constructed by mixing by superimposing or mixing (infinitely many) independent fractional Brownian motions (fBm) and fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes (fOU), respectively. Their existence as ${L^{2}}$ processes is proved, and their path properties, viz. long-range and short-range dependence, Hölder continuity, p-variation, and conditional full support, are studied.

The paper is devoted to a stochastic heat equation with a mixed fractional Brownian noise. We investigate the covariance structure, stationarity, upper bounds and asymptotic behavior of the solution. Based on its discrete-time observations, we construct a strongly consistent estimator for the Hurst index H and prove the asymptotic normality for $H < 3/4$. Then assuming the parameter H to be known, we deal with joint estimation of the coefficients at the Wiener process and at the fractional Brownian motion. The quality of estimators is illustrated by simulation experiments.

In this paper the study of a three-parametric class of Gaussian Volterra processes is continued. This study was started in Part I of the present paper. The class under consideration is a generalization of a fractional Brownian motion that is in fact a one-parametric process depending on Hurst index H. On the one hand, the presence of three parameters gives us a freedom to operate with the processes and we get a wider application possibilities. On the other hand, it leads to the need to apply rather subtle methods, depending on the intervals where the parameters fall. Integration with respect to the processes under consideration is defined, and it is found for which parameters the processes are differentiable. Finally, the Volterra representation is inverted, that is, the representation of the underlying Wiener process via Gaussian Volterra process is found. Therefore, it is shown that for any indices for which Gaussian Volterra process is defined, it generates the same flow of sigma-fields as the underlying Wiener process – the property that has been used many times when considering a fractional Brownian motion.

The stochastic process of the form is considered, where W is a standard Wiener process, $\alpha >-\frac{1}{2}$, $\gamma >-1$, and $\alpha +\beta +\gamma >-\frac{3}{2}$. It is proved that the process X is well-defined and continuous. The asymptotic properties of the variances and bounds for the variances of the increments of the process X are studied. It is also proved that the process X satisfies the single-point Hölder condition up to order $\alpha +\beta +\gamma +\frac{3}{2}$ at point 0, the “interval” Hölder condition up to order $\min \big(\gamma +\frac{3}{2},\hspace{0.2222em}1\big)$ on the interval $[{t_{0}},T]$ (where $0<{t_{0}}<T$), and the Hölder condition up to order $\min \big(\alpha +\beta +\gamma +\frac{3}{2},\hspace{0.2778em}\gamma +\frac{3}{2},\hspace{0.2778em}1\big)$ on the entire interval $[0,T]$.

Suitable families of random variables having power series distributions are considered, and their asymptotic behavior in terms of large (and moderate) deviations is studied. Two examples of fractional counting processes are presented, where the normalizations of the involved power series distributions can be expressed in terms of the Prabhakar function. The first example allows to consider the counting process in [Integral Transforms Spec. Funct. 27 (2016), 783–793], the second one is inspired by a model studied in [J. Appl. Probab. 52 (2015), 18–36].

General models of random fields on the sphere associated with nonlocal equations in time and space are studied. The properties of the corresponding angular power spectrum are discussed and asymptotic results in terms of random time changes are found.