Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications

The mixed model with polynomial drift of the form $X(t)=\theta \mathcal{P}(t)+\alpha W(t)+\sigma {B_{H}^{n}}(t)$ is studied, where ${B_{H}^{n}}$ is the nth-order fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in (n-1,n)$ and $n\ge 2$, independent of the Wiener process W. The polynomial function $\mathcal{P}$ is known, with degree $d(\mathcal{P})\in [1,n)$. Based on discrete observations and using the ergodic theorem estimates of H, ${\alpha ^{2}}$ and ${\sigma ^{2}}$ are given. Finally, a continuous time maximum likelihood estimator of θ is provided. Both strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established.

The object of investigation is the mixed fractional Brownian motion of the form ${X_{t}}=\kappa {B_{t}^{{H_{1}}}}+\sigma {B_{t}^{{H_{2}}}}$, driven by two independent fractional Brownian motions ${B_{1}^{H}}$ and ${B_{2}^{H}}$ with Hurst parameters ${H_{1}}\lt {H_{2}}$. Strongly consistent estimators of unknown model parameters ${({H_{1}},{H_{2}},{\kappa ^{2}},{\sigma ^{2}})^{\top }}$ are constructed based on the equidistant observations of a trajectory. Joint asymptotic normality of these estimators is proved for $0\lt {H_{1}}\lt {H_{2}}\lt \frac{3}{4}$.

The paper is devoted to a stochastic heat equation with a mixed fractional Brownian noise. We investigate the covariance structure, stationarity, upper bounds and asymptotic behavior of the solution. Based on its discrete-time observations, we construct a strongly consistent estimator for the Hurst index H and prove the asymptotic normality for $H < 3/4$. Then assuming the parameter H to be known, we deal with joint estimation of the coefficients at the Wiener process and at the fractional Brownian motion. The quality of estimators is illustrated by simulation experiments.

In this paper, we deal with an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process driven by sub-fractional Brownian motion of the second kind with Hurst index $H\in (\frac{1}{2},1)$. We provide a least squares estimator (LSE) of the drift parameter based on continuous-time observations. The strong consistency and the upper bound $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ in Kolmogorov distance for central limit theorem of the LSE are obtained. We use a Malliavin–Stein approach for normal approximations.

A problem of drift parameter estimation is studied for a nonergodic weighted fractional Vasicek model defined as $d{X_{t}}=\theta (\mu +{X_{t}})dt+d{B_{t}^{a,b}}$, $t\ge 0$, with unknown parameters $\theta >0$, $\mu \in \mathbb{R}$ and $\alpha :=\theta \mu $, whereas ${B^{a,b}}:=\{{B_{t}^{a,b}},t\ge 0\}$ is a weighted fractional Brownian motion with parameters $a>-1$, $|b|<1$, $|b|<a+1$. Least square-type estimators $({\widetilde{\theta }_{T}},{\widetilde{\mu }_{T}})$ and $({\widetilde{\theta }_{T}},{\widetilde{\alpha }_{T}})$ are provided, respectively, for $(\theta ,\mu )$ and $(\theta ,\alpha )$ based on a continuous-time observation of $\{{X_{t}},\hspace{2.5pt}t\in [0,T]\}$ as $T\to \infty $. The strong consistency and the joint asymptotic distribution of $({\widetilde{\theta }_{T}},{\widetilde{\mu }_{T}})$ and $({\widetilde{\theta }_{T}},{\widetilde{\alpha }_{T}})$ are studied. Moreover, it is obtained that the limit distribution of ${\widetilde{\theta }_{T}}$ is a Cauchy-type distribution, and ${\widetilde{\mu }_{T}}$ and ${\widetilde{\alpha }_{T}}$ are asymptotically normal.

In a continuous time nonlinear regression model the residual correlogram is considered as an estimator of the stationary Gaussian random noise covariance function. For this estimator the functional central limit theorem is proved in the space of continuous functions. The result obtained shows that the limiting sample continuous Gaussian random process coincides with the limiting process in the central limit theorem for standard correlogram of the random noise in the specified regression model.

We investigate the fractional Vasicek model described by the stochastic differential equation $d{X_{t}}=(\alpha -\beta {X_{t}})\hspace{0.1667em}dt+\gamma \hspace{0.1667em}d{B_{t}^{H}}$, ${X_{0}}={x_{0}}$, driven by the fractional Brownian motion ${B^{H}}$ with the known Hurst parameter $H\in (1/2,1)$. We study the maximum likelihood estimators for unknown parameters α and β in the non-ergodic case (when $\beta <0$) for arbitrary ${x_{0}}\in \mathbb{R}$, generalizing the result of Tanaka, Xiao and Yu (2019) for particular ${x_{0}}=\alpha /\beta $, derive their asymptotic distributions and prove their asymptotic independence.

In this paper we develop a general framework for quantifying how binary risk factors jointly influence a binary outcome. Our key result is an additive expansion of odds ratios as a sum of marginal effects and interaction terms of varying order. These odds ratio expansions are used for estimating the excess odds ratio, attributable proportion and synergy index for a case-control dataset by means of maximum likelihood from a logistic regression model. The confidence intervals associated with these estimates of joint effects and interaction of risk factors rely on the delta method. Our methodology is illustrated with a large Nordic meta dataset for multiple sclerosis. It combines four studies, with a total of 6265 cases and 8401 controls. It has three risk factors (smoking and two genetic factors) and a number of other confounding variables.

The Galton–Watson process is the simplest example of a branching process. The relationship between the offspring distribution, and, when the extinction occurs almost surely, the distribution of the total progeny is well known. In this paper, we illustrate the relationship between these two distributions when we consider the large deviation rate function (provided by Cramér’s theorem) for empirical means of i.i.d. random variables. We also consider the case with a random initial population. In the final part, we present large deviation results for sequences of estimators of the offspring mean based on i.i.d. replications of total progeny.

We consider a stochastic differential equation of the form with multiplicative stochastic volatility, where Y is some adapted stochastic process. We prove existence–uniqueness results for weak and strong solutions of this equation under various conditions on the process Y and the coefficients a, $\sigma _{1}$, and $\sigma _{2}$. Also, we study the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for the unknown parameter θ. We suppose that Y is in turn a solution of some diffusion SDE. Several examples of the main equation and of the process Y are provided supplying the strong consistency.